Trump wins US presidency as overnight market panic turns into a rebound

Donald Trump has won the US presidential election, defeating Hillary Clinton in a result that most national polls had not predicted.

Markets whipsawed through the night. As results from key swing states came in, US stock futures fell sharply and the Mexican peso dropped heavily, reflecting fears over trade policy. Safe-haven assets, including gold and the yen, gained.

By the time US markets opened, the mood had changed. Major indexes recovered their losses, with investors focusing on campaign promises of infrastructure spending, tax cuts and lighter regulation. Bank and industrial shares gained, while bond yields rose on expectations of larger deficits and higher inflation.

The currency picture is more complicated. The dollar recovered against the yen and euro, but emerging market currencies remained under pressure, particularly the peso. Key questions for the coming months include:

• How much of the trade agenda, including tariffs, will be implemented
• Whether fiscal stimulus leads the Federal Reserve to raise rates faster
• How a Republican-controlled Congress shapes tax and financial regulation

The night also reopened a debate about polling and prediction markets. Both had favoured a Clinton win, and the scale of the market swing shows how much positioning was built on that expectation.